世界杯冠军预测 | 慢速英语听力

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世界杯冠军今年会花落谁家呢?德国?巴西?还是...?


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The 2018 FIFA World Cup began Thursday in Russia.Football fans have waited four years to see their favorite teams compete for the world championship.

It is the year’s biggest sporting event.People across the world are already making their predictions for which team will win.

Professional bookmakers create odds, which use large amounts of information to measure the probabilities for winners and losers.People use those odds to decide which teams to bet on.The bookmakers then pay off those bets.

For 2018, the bookmaker odds clearly favor Brazil to win the World Cup.Defending champion Germany is second, with Spain and France not far behind.

But this year, several groups have also turned to machine learning and artificial intelligence, or AI, for predictions.

One of the groups is a research team from Germany.Andreas Groll of the Technical University of Dortmund led the group.

In a report on the results, Groll said his team used computers to simulate the whole World Cup competition 100,000 times.Machine learning was used to predict the expected number of goals made by each team in each game.The prediction method combined large amounts of information on the teams’ abilities and individual players’ performances from the past.

So who did Groll’s machines pick as the winner?The results chose Spain as the most likely World Cup champion, with a probability of 17.8 percent.Germany was next, followed by Brazil, France and Belgium.

However, Groll’s team said it could not predict Spain as the sure winner.This is because of the way the World Cup competition is structured.

The reason Spain has a small lead over Germany is mostly because Germany has a higher chance of not making it to the quarterfinals.But if Germany does make it to the quarterfinals, the German team would actually be favored to beat Spain, the researchers said.

In another recent prediction created through machine learning, the financial company Goldman Sachs chose Brazil as the 2018 World Cup winner.Germany was chosen as the team most likely to lose to Brazil.

The company said its method was based on 200,000 data models and 1 million simulations of the whole World Cup.Machines examined information on the teams and players’ abilities, as well as past performances.In 2014, Goldman Sachs also predicted Brazil to win the World Cup.But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.

Many people who are interested in the 2018 World Cup will surely take note of the numbers-based predictions by bookmakers and AI machines.

But others might choose to believe the choices of a cat said to have psychic abilities.The cat, named Achilles, lives in Russia’s Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg.

Achilles officially works there as a mouse catcher.But some locals say the animal is also able to predict future happenings.So far, he has only predicted one World Cup match, the opening game between Russia and Saudi Arabia.When offered a choice between two containers of food, Achilles chose the one with a Russian flag.

The choice could be seen as a good luck sign for Russia’s team.Even though Russia is holding the World Cup, its team is rated the lowest of any of the 32 competing.

I’m Bryan Lynn.


The 2018 FIFA World Cupbegan Thursday in Russia. Football fans have waited four years to see theirfavorite teams compete for the world championship.
2018年世界杯于周四在俄罗斯开幕。足球迷们等了四年才看到他们喜爱的球队争夺世界杯冠军。


It is the year’s biggest sporting event. Peopleacross the world are already making their predictions for which team will win.
这是今年最大的体育赛事。世界各地的人们已经在预测哪支球队会赢。 



Professional bookmakers create odds, which uselarge amounts of information to measure the probabilities for winners andlosers. People use those odds to decide which teams to bet on. The bookmakersthen pay off those bets.
专业的博彩公司利用大量的信息来统计出赢家和输家的概率并开出赔率。人们利用这些赔率来决定赌哪支球队。然后,博彩公司会清偿这些赌注。


For 2018, the bookmaker odds clearly favorBrazil to win the World Cup. Defending champion Germany is second, with Spainand France not far behind.
对于2018年世界杯,博彩公司显然更青睐于巴西夺冠。卫冕冠军德国排名第二,西班牙和法国紧随其后。



But this year, several groups have also turnedto machine learning and artificial intelligence, or AI, for predictions.
但今年,一些团队也转向机器学习和人工智能(AI)进行预测。


One of the groups is a research team fromGermany. Andreas Groll of the Technical University of Dortmund led the group.
其中一个团队是来自德国的一个研究小组。多特蒙德工业大学的安德烈亚斯·格罗尔(Andreas Groll)是这个团队的负责人。 


In a report on the results, Groll said his teamused computers to simulate the whole World Cup competition 100,000 times. Machinelearning was used to predict the expected number of goals made by each team ineach game. The prediction method combined large amounts of information on theteams’ abilities and individual players’ performances from the past.
在一份关于比赛结果的报告中,格罗尔说他的团队使用电脑对整个世界杯比赛进行了10万次模拟。通过机器学习来预测每个球队在每一场比赛中预期的进球数量。这种预测方法结合了大量过去该球队能力和球员个人表现的信息。



So who did Groll’s machines pick as the winner?The results chose Spain as the most likely World Cup champion, with aprobability of 17.8 percent. Germany was next, followed by Brazil, France andBelgium.
那么格罗尔的机器认为谁会赢呢?结果显示,西班牙最有可能获得世界杯冠军,概率为17.8%。德国紧随其后,其次是巴西、法国和比利时 。


However, Groll’s team said it could not predictSpain as the sure winner. This is because of the way the World Cup competitionis structured.
然而,格罗尔的团队表示,西班牙不一定会是最终的赢家。因为这是由世界杯比赛的组织形式决定的。 



The reason Spain has a small lead over Germanyis mostly because Germany has a higher chance of not making it to thequarterfinals. But if Germany does make it to the quarterfinals, the Germanteam would actually be favored to beat Spain, the researchers said.
西班牙比德国夺冠概率高,主要是因为德国很有可能止步于四分之一决赛。不过,研究人员表示,如果德国队能进入四分之一决赛,那么德国队就有机会击败西班牙队。


In another recent prediction created throughmachine learning, the financial company Goldman Sachs chose Brazil as the 2018World Cup winner. Germany was chosen as the team most likely to lose to Brazil.
在另一项通过机器学习产生的最新预测中,高盛金融公司(Goldman Sachs)认为巴西能夺得2018年世界杯的冠军。德国队被选为最有可能输给巴西队的球队。



The company said its method was based on200,000 data models and 1 million simulations of the whole World Cup. Machinesexamined information on the teams and players’ abilities, as well as pastperformances. In 2014, Goldman Sachs also predicted Brazil to win the WorldCup. But Germany actually ended up winning the 2014 championship.
该公司表示,这一预测方法是基于20万个数据模型和100万场世界杯赛事模拟。机器考察了各球队和球员的能力以及过去表现。高盛曾在2014年预测巴西将赢得世界杯。但德国最终赢得了2014年的冠军。


Many people who are interested in the 2018World Cup will surely take note of the numbers-based predictions by bookmakersand AI machines.
许多对2018年世界杯感兴趣的人肯定会注意到博彩公司和人工智能机器基于数字的预测结果。


But others might choose to believe the choicesof a cat said to have psychic abilities. The cat, named Achilles, lives inRussia’s Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg.
但是其他人可能会选择相信一只据说有通灵能力的猫的预测。这只名叫阿喀琉斯的猫住在俄罗斯圣彼得堡的埃尔米塔日博物馆。



Achilles officially works there as a mousecatcher. But some locals say the animal is also able to predict futurehappenings. So far, he has only predicted one World Cup match, the opening gamebetween Russia and Saudi Arabia. When offered a choice between two containersof food, Achilles chose the one with a Russian flag.
阿喀琉斯在那里正式担任捕鼠员。但一些当地人说,它也能预测未来发生的事情。到目前为止,它只预测了一场世界杯比赛,即俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯之间的首场比赛。当阿喀琉斯被要求在两盒食物容器中做出选择时,他选择了一盒印有俄罗斯国旗的。


The choice could be seen as a good luck signfor Russia’s team. Even though Russia is holding the World Cup, its team israted the lowest of any of the 32 competing.
这对俄罗斯队来说是一个好兆头。尽管俄罗斯是本届世界杯的东道主,但在32支参赛球队中,俄罗斯队的排名是最低的。


I’m Bryan Lynn.
布莱恩·林恩为您播报。


能在VOA慢速英语遇见大家,真的好幸运。

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